We see the current Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu win a victory in the upcoming Israeli elections and retaining his position as PM. We continue to see clouds and storms swirling around him and advise caution in the near future.
We see the Eastern dictator, emboldened by his recent success, to continue his theft of Ukrainian territory. Not satisfied enough with stealing Crimea, he will continue his advances and take other parts of Ukrainian territory and claim them as his, using various false pretexts. The strategy is to isolate the authorities in Kiev who move ever closer towards alignment with the West. He is convinced that the West will not risk military confrontation and that any type of sanctions imposed will not be enough as to deter his ambitions.
Make no mistake.
His appetite is ravenous. He comes from the era of domination by force. He believes completely that the West aims to subjugate and dominate his country and this is his way of demonstrating that he will not be stifled or made small. He believes the West was responsible for the breakup of the USSR and he aims to restore it. He is not Medvedev who is a moderate.
Western leaders cringe at the prospect of going too far in sanctions and penalties for fear of reciprocating actions from Russia that will affect their economies as well, so there is little they can do to prevent this man from aggression. If Poland escalates its schedule for the defensive missiles shield in its country, he will do the unthinkable – consider invading this country as well. He will go as far as he can without it leading to a nuclear confrontation but he is willing to go even that far because his ego and pride are his own demons.
This is a very dangerous man.
The Russian dictator continues to defy democracy and repression as he grapples with losing his puppet ally. Let there be no doubt – he has invaded the country under false pretenses and does not intend to leave. U.S. and European attempts to gain retreat will not be successful and like Georgia, Ukraine will fall beneath his army, but not before the dead accumulate. His actions will gain increased condemnation and international sanctions but they are little consequence to him for he will not retreat. It is not his nature.
UPDATED (3-16-2014) – Crimea has voted to rejoin Russia. The dictator will officially accept this and declare Crimea annexed to Russia. He is also pondering moving into Eastern Ukraine as well as further territory in the South near the border of Crimea. He is undeterred by the West and threats of sanctions. The further encroachments could lead to a confrontation directly with NATO as Ukrainian leaders have secretly discussed the previously unthinkable idea of joining this organization for security reasons.
We believe an attack will come in the form of a military strike with possible ground troops included. The attack will target the complex at Fordow and other nuclear sites as well as potential retaliatory strikes from within Iran. Iran will counter with a massive rocket attack on Israel from Lebanon and possibly involving Syria (although we see this as increasingly unlikely).
As we predicted in April and reiterated on 9/3/2012 in our predictions update, Barack Obama will win re-election with over 290 electoral votes. Despite Governor Romney’s recent debate surge, President Obama will carry the election with slightly over 50% of the popular vote. Mr. Biden will win the debate against Paul Ryan tomorrow, stemming the recent negative trend from Debate 1. President Obama will recover for Debates 2 & 3.
UPDATED: We reiterate in the strongest terms possible that our predictions from April and September stand. President Obama, despite appearing to be dead even in nearly all national polls with Mitt Romney will win the presidency handily with over 300 electoral votes and will win the popular vote with lightly over 50%. Please consult our April 2012 prediction for the states he will win. The link appears below.
Here are the first of several predictions for the year:
- Before the end of the Year of the Dragon, there will be a new Pope in Rome
- Before the end of 2012 Iran will have developed a nuclear weapon as well as the means to deliver it by missile. The reach of this weapon will be all of the Middle East and portions of the European continent. It will not be announced until 2013
There will be no attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities from either the United States or Israel.Updated (see below)
- The current President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will be out of office before 2012 is over either by impeachment or another act engineered by the theocracy
- Mitt Romney will be the Republican party nominee
- Barack Obama will be re-elected in a close race for President of the United States
UPDATE 2-5-2012: We are altering our prediction related to an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by U.S. or Israeli forces. We had originally predicted that there would be no attack by either the U.S. or Israel this year. We now see a forthcoming attack from the Israeli side to occur sometime from July-September of this year when attempts through diplomacy appear to have failed. The attack targets will be Natanz, Esfahan and Arak with an elite IDF force going after the Fordo complex through a targeted land attack using a small ground force supported by complementing air strikes. Some Iranian missile sites will also be targeted to reduce the counterattack capability of Iran. The U.S. will disavow any direct assistance in this action but will signal their support as a sovereign rite for Israel to defend itself. There will be additional rocket attacks from Lebanon and the Gaza strip as Hezbollah and Hamas forces also join in to the fray to open a 3 point front with Israel.